For a case study in the difference between ego-driven politics and strategic thinking, see these two events: the halting of the Eastern Cape ANC conference last week pending the resolution of internal disputes over branch processes and verification.
The flipside is the successful Limpopo ANC conference also last week that elected Dr Phophi Ramathuba (the first woman premier of that province) as the first ANC woman chair in Limpopo.
On one side, a self-defeating mess. On the other, calibrated hardball tactics.
Outgoing Eastern Cape ANC chair Lubabalo Oscar Mabuyane (also the premier of the province) and his primary opponent, outgoing provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi, spent the past year piling up insults and ill will, lighting piles of cash on fire with both camps mobilising support through Mabuyane’s “Thina Masebe” and Ngcukayitobi’s “Thina Bantu” slates — only to end in a draw in last Friday’s final round.
An Eastern Cape high court (KuGompo) interim interdict granted by acting judge Babalo Metu on March 27 halting the conference pending the resolution of internal disputes over branch processes and verification reports was a turning point.
It was like the War of the Axe, with cowboy hats.
The fight has been monumentally wasteful, devoid of substance, utterly unnecessary — the result of one man’s overweening ambition and another man’s refusal to make the hard call.
Political competition is healthy, but that was never the motivating factor in the Eastern Cape.
The province is among the most solid party electoral bases, and any competent leader at the helm of the party would not make a whit of difference to electoral outcomes or political stability in the party and in government.
This race bears no resemblance to party challenges in other provinces where strong opposition is energised to wrestle power from the ANC.
Mabuyane’s third consecutive term ambitions continue, bolstered by explanations that while he must hand over the baton at some point, his bidding is “not an insult”.
However, a third Mabuyane term — a strongman in his province who lost to Paul Mashatile as deputy president at the ANC’s 2022 national elective conference — threatens to undermine leadership renewal and succession planning.
This as some party members and structures warn that extended tenures risk entrenching divisions and intensifying internal contestation, especially in a province that had experienced prolonged factional disputes.
Ngcukayitobi, while he indicated as early as January that he would be willing to lead the party in the province if branches nominated him for the position of chair, has always avoided publicly discussing competing ambitions in the provincial leadership and has maintained that leadership contest should be resolved through ANC internal processes rather than individual declarations.
The only motivating factor, ever, characteristic of Mabuyane’s and Ngcukayitobi’s (and those individuals in their slates) unbounded ambitions, finds explanation in the longtime joke that ANC chairpersonship stands for “aspiring premier”.
And both aspire like professionals, having devoted months to headline-grabbing branch and regional conference orchestra to build their brand by influencing election outcomes and provincial conference delegates composition.
And who does not like “chair” and “premier” before his name?
Yet they ultimately figured that there are many rivers to cross as the provincial leadership is pleading with the national leadership for another chance to reconvene an elective conference beyond the party’s March deadline.
Earlier in 2026, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula issued a stern directive that all provinces must hold their elective conferences before the end of March, failing which, after the local government elections.
Party leaders have a duty to avoid this kind of toxic waste, and now the court will adjudicate on matters that could have been amicably resolved internally.
In similar cases, the court always favoured circumspection over speed in its role as ultimate arbitrator between litigants, as party conferences are also about the enjoyment of political rights in Section 19 of the constitution.
The court does have a tool to address any mismatch between the tempo of its proceedings and the urgency of human rights enforcement in muddied situations.
Whatever the outcome, a fixation on a postponed interim decision could be a dangerous distraction delaying decisive action by the organisation’s leadership to rectify internal shortcomings as it waits for a final verdict while demonstrable divisions and instability continue.
The problem with this kind of fixation is that it contains an underlying suggestion that, if the applicants do not meet the legal definition and substantiation of the alleged non-compliance with the organisation’s governance instruments and its constitution, then all is well.
It should not require litigation solely to spur the leadership and membership to discharge their obligation to step in or take remedial and conciliatory action.
Contrast this to the successful Limpopo ANC conference that also faced an interdict bid launched by a disgruntled ANC branch member.
The member had questioned the legitimacy of the digital device used to verify the branch general meeting in Ward 10 of the Collins Chabane region that decided on the delegates that would represent the branch at the conference.
The court dismissed that bid, and the elections went ahead without interruptions.
The two factions agreed to work together, with Ramathuba elected uncontested as provincial chair with Polokwane mayor John Mpe as deputy.
The rationale is certainly one that party members and citizens of the province can applaud.
Ramathuba is at the top of her game. She is not overambitious or moving to a new post.
She is respected in the party and was positioned for easy re-election.
This was simply a contest that recognised that the time had come to make way for fresh blood. That is honourable.
The timing was also savvy, exactly what you would expect from a province that understands the importance of gender equality and equity in party and government leadership.
Some candidates withdrew immediately after consultations, clearing the field for those candidates the party knows have the strongest shot at propelling the party and the province forward.
The fresh start means minimal friction ahead of the local government elections.
The province is most likely to use this approach in the coming months to influence ANC national decisions with forged internal co-operation of different factions helping to avoid self-defeating battles.
These developments can motivate the grassroots, and there will be little carping over the Ramathuba election and the conference resolutions.
Indeed, parties are not potted plants — they are made up of grassroots activists — and party leaders in Limpopo are realising more than others in the Eastern Cape the error of leaving all to fate (and selfish narrow interests of political factions).
By exercising political maturity and keeping the party as united as possible, the ANC in Limpopo has more capital and leverage for tougher races.
That is the kind of strategic thinking the ANC in the Eastern Cape will need if it wants to keep political influence.
We will see if wisdom comes late to the Mabuyane and Ngcukayitobi factions.
• Dr Nkosikhulule Xhawulengweni Nyembezi is a policy analyst and human rights activist.