Gold prices have surged dramatically as of February 2026, reaching between $4,800 and $5,500 per ounce, with peaks over $5,500.
This rally, which nearly doubled prices in 2025, is driven by a confluence of geopolitical, economic, and monetary factors.
Geopolitical tensions, such as US-Iran conflicts—including US forces downing an Iranian drone and threats from President Donald Trump — have heightened global uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe-haven asset.
This demand intensifies amid volatile stock markets, trade wars, and political instability, leading to sharp price spikes, like a 1.6% increase to $4,848 during equity declines.
Central banks play a pivotal role, with emerging markets and BRICS nations stockpiling gold to diversify reserves and de-dollarize amid concerns over US debt and Federal Reserve policies.
Projections indicate purchases could hit 800 tonnes in 2026, bolstering prices.
Economic elements further fuel the rise: a weaker dollar, slightly lower interest rates, and expectations of looser global monetary policy make gold more appealing than yield-based investments like bonds.
High market volatility, profit-taking from other assets, and speculative investments amplify the momentum.
Analysts from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank forecast prices could reach $6,000 or more by year-end, viewing dips as buying opportunities in a sustained bull market.
However, potential economic slowdowns or further rate cuts could introduce volatility.
In SA, where gold mining contributes 8-10% to GDP and 60% of exports, this surge profoundly impacts stocks.
Mining companies benefit immensely, with improved margins and cash flows. Gold Fields, for example, saw its shares jump 4.5% after projecting 110-123% earnings growth for 2025, driven by high prices and increased output; its stock has risen 141% over the past year.
Harmony Gold and Sibanye-Stillwater also gain from expanded operations and better costs, with African production expected to grow over 10% via technology. Gold equities hit all-time highs last month, outpacing broader markets.
The rally strengthens the rands in our pockets. It is nearing R16/$ at the moment — its strongest since 2022 — due to higher export revenues, all of which improves the current account and curbs inflation.
It also supports the JSE all-share index, up 46% since early 2025 to over 124,500 points.
Gold acts as a stabiliser against local challenges like political issues and currency swings.
The old saying that all that glitters isn’t gold seems not to be true in this case as gold is out-glittering most other asset classes.
>creditparsans<Blueprint Finance Brokers in East London owner Scott Roebert has been a financial planner for 25 years, specialising in bespoke investments and retirement planning. You can find him on Facebook